Wednesday, 9 September 2015

NOW HAVEN'T I BEEN SAYING THIS ALL THESE YEARS?

Well, well, well! Now haven't I been saying this all these years against the torrent of bullshit from paperback writer futurists and the opportunistic, brain dead management CON-sultants who have been parroting the mantra that Malaysia can "move up the value chain" from manufacturing to information and services industries to become a "knowledge-based economy by the year 2020"?

For years, government ministers, civil servants and management types had been chanting the mantra that Malaysia's productivity has decline dangerously compared to our neighbours, so we "must move up the value chain" to more "highly skilled, knowledge intensive activities in high technology, knowledge-based industries".

Oh! how I squirm when I hear such obfuscating terms by spin doctors. Welcome to this new language called "Managementese".

That often made me wonder whether these guys did not know that productivity is measured in terms of output per worker per unit time or whether did they know but were lying through their teeth when they actually meant that Malaysia's labour had become expensive compared to our neighbours, hence "less productive".

Often in conversation over coffee or tea, people talk about how the economies of our neighbours such as Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia are rising whilst Malaysia's economy is in decline.

Well, what's been happening is that manufacturing and assembly industries have been moving out of Malaysia to these countries as well as to China.

And, now, a respected regional business publication the Nikkei Asian Review asks whether Malaysia is now paying for having downplayed manufacturing.

Of course yes - manufacturing has to move away from just screwdriver assembly to the design and development of unique, innovative and quality products and materials, rather than what we have now where many manufacturers just rebadge and rebrand generic products from China.

Anyway, I guess after this, there will be plenty of management CON-sultants scrambling to change their well worn script to one which champions manufacturing, now that Nikkei has debunked the notion of services as an "engine of growth to replace manufacturing".

BTW. I understand that shares of furniture manufacturers which export their products to the U.S., Europe and other developed countries are good investments now that the Malaysian ringgit is down at around RM4.30 to the U.S. dollar.

I rest my case.

Read on

IT.Scheiss




August 16, 2015 7:00 am JST Currency meltdown

Malaysia might pay for downplaying manufacturing

HIROSHI MURAYAMA, Nikkei senior staff writer

BANGKOK -- As emerging countries develop, they tend to shift their engine of growth from manufacturing to the service sector out of a belief that higher costs associated with growth erode manufacturers' export-competitiveness. But enhancing added value in services is no easy task, and putting manufacturing on the back burner can lead to stagnation.

     For Malaysia, such a gloomy scenario might become a reality.

     "I didn't know there used to be a factory here," a truck driver delivering rice to a nearby supermarket says, looking at a building construction site across the street. Chic houses line this neighborhood of Petaling Jaya, a city next to Kuala Lumpur in the state of Selangor.

     A Panasonic group air conditioner factory stood at the site just several years ago. The property developer that acquired the site is now building a complex to house a shopping mall with office space on top. Similar projects are underway in many parts of the area.

     Petaling Jaya was an industrial hub. But once an emerging country's per capita gross domestic product exceeds $5,000 or so, simple assembly is not enough to sustain growth. Malaysia's per capita GDP crossed the threshold back in 2005. Because manufacturers moved production to countries with late development and lower costs, growth in early-developing emerging countries slowed, plunging their economies into the doldrums.


     As prime minister from 2003 to 2009, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi aimed to avoid this trap by shifting his country's focus from manufacturing to Islamic finance and other services. Growth was maintained, and ex-factory workers got jobs at malls and offices. Manufacturing's contribution to the economy fell from 31% in 2004 to 25% in 2013, according to the Japan External Trade Organization.

     Malaysia maintained growth of at least 5% per annum almost every year, and the shift in its industrial structure apparently succeeded -- until the ongoing currency crash revealed worse-than-expected weakness. The ringgit lost 10-20% in the first half of 2015 year on year, but exports fell 3.1%. As domestic demand softens, the brakes have been put on foreign demand, making slower growth unavoidable.

     A softer currency normally helps lift exports. But with Malaysia's manufacturing weakening, its cheaper currency is not leading to more exports. Having manufacturers that can ship goods abroad provides tolerance to a financial crisis. During the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the ringgit and Thailand's baht tumbled, triggering economic chaos. But the weaker currencies strengthened manufacturing's competitiveness, and exports helped bring about rapid economic recoveries, guiding the countries out of the crisis.

     The situation was different in Argentina and elsewhere in South America, where a quick economic turnaround did not happen even after the currency dropped. Economic data explains this: Manufacturing accounted for 38% of Thailand's GDP in 2013 but just 13% in Argentina's. Malaysia's ability to weather a crisis is sure to erode if manufacturing's contribution there continues to shrink.

     South Korea and Taiwan alone have escaped the pitfall of middle-income nations and boosted their economies to a level close to those of industrialized countries. Both have rising manufacturing ratios: South Korea's climbed from 24% in 2004 to 29% in 2013, while Taiwan's increased from 25% to 31%. That they did not focus too hard on the service sector, and enhanced production technologies, helped sustain their growth.

     To increase a country's GDP, such services as real estate, finance and tourism might seem attractive as alternatives to manufacturing. But taking that route does not guarantee long-term growth, given that the service sector will face intense competition with developed economies. Going beyond simple assembly work is a key issue for not only Malaysia, but also other middle-income nations.


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